WEEK 5 / THE DECISION DESK
This week’s decision.
A pick for your pool. A plan for the weeks ahead.
YOUR PICK DEADLINEThu, Oct 8, 12:55 PM ET
Recommendation unavailable
Load valid moneylines and an active entry to calculate a recommendation.
The short list
Every trade-off, side by side. Select a team to inspect the evidence.
No eligible candidates with valid current moneylines.
● Efficient frontier: no candidate dominates all three trade-offs.
Your team inventory
4 usedPHIPHIWeek 1
KCKCWeek 2
HOUHOUWeek 3
SFSFWeek 4
Model run
REPRODUCIBLEOne outcome per game, shared by every entry. Same-team picks win and lose together.
Data usedSynthetic fixture
Odds
6 fictional books per game. Median de-vigged two-sided moneyline. Stale retrievals over 60 minutes are excluded.
Future probabilities
Projected from market-fitted ratings and an initial strength prior. The sample conversion curve is an assumption. Uncertainty grows with the horizon.
Pool history
100 synthetic entries. Known-at timestamps prevent future pick information from leaking into earlier decisions.
Ownership & injuries
Sample public ownership Injuries are synthetic.